Sustained oil market volatility and Middle East supply uncertainties weigh on the UAE Fuel Price Committee’s upcoming monthly revision.
DUBAI, Sept 24 : Drivers across the United Arab Emirates face a likely increase in retail fuel prices for October, driven by international crude benchmarks remaining stubbornly above the $100 mark throughout September.
The UAE Fuel Price Committee is scheduled to announce regulated domestic fuel charges for October on the final day of the month, concluding a volatile pricing window dominated by geopolitical stress and shifting export routes.
Brent crude hovered at $101.52 a barrel on Wednesday, up 2.3 percent on the session after touching an intraday low of $98.99. While down from the near-$110 peak reached during a panic run the previous week, crude remains roughly 41 percent above late-February baseline levels of $72 a barrel, which preceded heightened regional military conflict.
Retail fuel rates in the Emirates are revised monthly based on moving averages of global refined products alongside shipping, storage, and retail operational overheads. With September’s average tracking well above August levels, upward pressure on pump prices has mounted.
For September, the committee set Super 98 at Dh3.80 per litre, Special 95 at Dh3.69, E-Plus 91 at Dh3.61, and diesel at Dh4.30.
Current pump rates remain below the peaks reached earlier this year. Super 98 peaked at Dh3.95 in June, Special 95 touched Dh3.83, and E-Plus reached Dh3.76. Diesel set its 2026 high in April and May at Dh4.69 per litre. An increase of roughly 14 to 15 fils per litre would push all three petrol grades back to those summer highs.
At the retail level, an increase of 10 fils per litre adds Dh6 to a 60-litre tank fill and Dh8 to an 80-litre SUV fill. A 20-fils increase lifts these figures by Dh12 and Dh16, respectively.
Physical supplies have gained some relief from developments in Saudi Arabia, where state energy producer Saudi Aramco has moved to restore flow through its 5-million-barrel-per-day East-West Petroline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the congested Strait of Hormuz. Aramco has signaled to Asian buyers that export liftings from Yanbu may normalize shortly.
The route cannot fully offset global market tightness on its own. Bloomberg reported that European refiners have been advised they will receive zero allocations via the Red Sea corridor for October, limiting immediate regional relief.
At the diplomatic table, indirect discussions between Washington and Tehran continue via intermediaries without a firm accord to guarantee commercial tanker movements.
The pricing committee’s final adjustment hinges on the closing trading sessions of September. If crude fails to drop decisively below $100 a barrel before month-end, motorists will see higher transportation expenses from October 1.
