National Centre of Meteorology forecasts a 98% probability of El Niño conditions intensifying through late 2026.
DUBAI: The United Arab Emirates is preparing for an exceptionally harsh climatic phase, with weather experts tracking the rapid development of a potential ‘Super El Niño’ phenomenon. The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has confirmed a staggering 98% probability of El Niño conditions prevailing between July and November 2026, signaling a major shift toward hotter days and unprecedented humidity levels across the region.
According to the latest seasonal updates from the NCM, sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific have risen significantly above the standard threshold. This powerful ocean-atmosphere disruption, unfolding thousands of kilometers away, is already altering global wind patterns, effectively disabling the cooling northwestern winds that traditionally offer respite to the Arabian Gulf.
For residents and the expansive expatriate community in the UAE, the primary concern remains a sharp spike in coastal atmospheric humidity coupled with above-normal seasonal temperatures. Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Emirates Astronomical Society, noted that while the impact may not match the dramatic deluges seen in South America, the local combination of high heat and moisture will significantly increase the heat index, creating severe thermal discomfort.
Beyond the immediate summer heatwave, meteorologists are also monitoring the secondary phase of the cycle. Historically, strong El Niño patterns trigger enhanced tropical activity in the Arabian Sea during autumn. This raises the probability of active storm seasons and severe weather systems affecting neighboring Oman, Yemen, and occasionally extending into the wider Gulf region.
